Thursday, January 15, 2009

Conditional Probability

If there exists a subject called anti-probability, then watching Wilbon and Kornheiser play "odds maker" on PTI is like watching a graduate-level lecture in it. I only wish there was a casino at which they set the lines. I would never have to work an honesty day in my life.

On today's show they were asked: what are the chances that Sam Bradford will win two Heisman trophies in his collegiate career? Tony went first and said something reasonable -- I can't remember the exact figure, somewhere around 20%, I think -- and he mentioned that 74 Heisman trophies have been awarded and only once has there been a repeat winner. Wilbon, showing supreme mathematical cunning, used Kornheiser's "own argument against [him]" and said that the chances are 1 / 74, 1.35%. Mr. Wilbon, I recommend a stats 100 textbook, read the section on conditional probability. Sam Bradford won the Heisman last year as a sophomore. He has already announced he is returning to Oklahoma next season. He will have at least one, possibly two more cracks at a second Heisman. He is one of the best and most famous players in college football. Barring a complete downfall, he will be in the Heisman discussion his entire collegiate career. If $10 future contacts of Sam Bradford winning two Heismans were selling for $.14, I would buy at least 100 of them ASAP.

The First Post

Let me begin by saying that I like Pardon The Interruption. I like the show, I like Michael Wilbon and I like Tony Kornheiser (mostly). I even like some of the guest hosts (like Dan LeBatard) and I like Tony Reali (although an episode of Around the Horn can be tough to stomach). However, I also like the name of this blog. And let's be honest, Wilbon and Kornheiser are entertaining, but when it comes to serious sports analyis, they say some pretty idiotic things. But so do a lot of people in sports. And a lot of people in sports do idiotic things (see 90% of NFL coaches). The purpose of this blog is to expose all these idiotic things. In other words, the purpose is to be a nitpicky asshole. This blog is inspired by the now defunct www.firejoemorgan.com. I imagine it will be just like it minus the side-splitting humor. Enjoy.