If there exists a subject called anti-probability, then watching Wilbon and Kornheiser play "odds maker" on PTI is like watching a graduate-level lecture in it. I only wish there was a casino at which they set the lines. I would never have to work an honesty day in my life.
On today's show they were asked: what are the chances that Sam Bradford will win two Heisman trophies in his collegiate career? Tony went first and said something reasonable -- I can't remember the exact figure, somewhere around 20%, I think -- and he mentioned that 74 Heisman trophies have been awarded and only once has there been a repeat winner. Wilbon, showing supreme mathematical cunning, used Kornheiser's "own argument against [him]" and said that the chances are 1 / 74, 1.35%. Mr. Wilbon, I recommend a stats 100 textbook, read the section on conditional probability. Sam Bradford won the Heisman last year as a sophomore. He has already announced he is returning to Oklahoma next season. He will have at least one, possibly two more cracks at a second Heisman. He is one of the best and most famous players in college football. Barring a complete downfall, he will be in the Heisman discussion his entire collegiate career. If $10 future contacts of Sam Bradford winning two Heismans were selling for $.14, I would buy at least 100 of them ASAP.
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