Did Bill Belichick Make the Right Move?

In one of the most entertaining football games I have seen in a while, Bill Belichick made a very unconventional move. He elected to go for it from his own 28 with 2:08 left in the game and his Patriots leading the Colts 34-28. The attempt failed and the Colts went on to score a touchdown and win the game by a point. Belichick is probably the only coach in the league with the balls to go for it in that situation. The second-guessing is going to be relentless. So, was it the right move? My educated guess: an emphatic "probably not... but then again...".

Let's say a) going for it is a 55-45 proposition in favor of converting, b) converting means a win, c) a punt means Indy gets the ball on their own 30, d) not converting gives the Colts the ball on the Pats 30.* Under these conditions, going for it is the right move if the Colts scoring a touchdown, with two minutes left and one time out, from the Pats 30 is less than 2.2 times as likely as scoring a touchdown from their own 30 under similar circumstances. Is this the case? I don't think so, but who knows? In order to answer this with confidence I would need much more time and data than I have currently. My off-the-cuff expert estimation (watching just about every NFL game of the season qualifies me as an expert, in my mind) is that punting is the right move, but if Belichick felt his defense was particularly beaten down, or that his offense is exceptionally good at picking up two yards, then going for it might have been a good move.

This situation is precisely the time when a "Game Management Coach" could come in handy. NFL teams should hire people to crunch a bunch of data, so that they have good estimations of probabilities for a swath of scenarios. They should then pick the one who is the fastest on his or her feet and proclaim them the Game Management Coach. Their job is to follow the head coach around and tell him what to do. It is a great idea, but the chances of it happening anytime soon are probably pretty low. (By the way, this is the same basic idea put forth by Bill Simmons in this column's "Great Call of the Week". Although I disagree with his take on the "down by two scores in the final two minutes" conundrum. I also don't think Madden is the best NFL football game simulator, given that I once threw 8 TD passes to Terrell Owens in a game against a friend. Still, the larger point is a good one.)

*These seem reasonble because a) two yards is what is needed on a 2-point conversion and the success rate for them has been around 50% in recent years (this guy backs that up), but the Patriots have an above average offense, so I put it at 55%, b) the Pats can essentially run out the clock if they convert, c) a 42 yard net punt is reasonable, d) the 30 is a good round yard line.