In today's TMQ, he links to this article which makes the case that Belichick did the right thing in going for it. Although, in the article's analysis it's little more than a coin toss (a win probability of 80.5% by going for it versus a win probability of 79% by punting), and you could take issue with some of their assumputions, such as using probabilities with respect to average offenses, when both the Pats and Colts have above average offenses, but I think it's safe to say that it was a really close call, and it's tough to fault Belichick in either decision he makes.
TMQ takes Belichick's side to a fault. Here is my favorite blurb from his article.
Belichick correctly calculated that if he punted, the hot Indianapolis offense was likely to beat his tired defense...
Paragraphs earlier he cited an article estimating that Indianapolis' chances of winning after a Patriot punt is 21%, and now he implies that Indianapolis is likely to win in this scenario! WTF, TMQ?
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